Stillbirth Risk Calculator

This calculator relies on a multiplicative risk model that adjusts a baseline population risk using hazard ratios associated with specific demographic, clinical, and behavioral attributes. The core mathematical formulation is expressed as: stillbirth_risk = basicRisk * smoking * ethnicity * diabetes * alcohol * hypertension * lupus * anti_phospholipid_syndrome * BMI_factor * parity_factor * age_factor * ART_factor. Each variable acts as a multiplier; for instance, a risk factor greater than 1 increases the baseline probability, while protective factors adjust it downward. Additionally, the tool computes the population proportion metric as stillbirth_people = 100 / stillbirth_risk to help visualize statistical odds.

Consider an expecting mother with a baseline population risk factor. Suppose her clinical profile includes a maternal age factor of 1.2, a BMI multiplier of 1.1 due to mild overweight status, and a smoking multiplier of 1.5. Assuming all other medical variables such as hypertension, diabetes, and autoimmune conditions are neutral (multiplier of 1.0), and her baseline risk is 0.5 percent, the calculation proceeds as follows: stillbirth_risk = 0.5% * 1.2 * 1.1 * 1.5 = 0.99%. To interpret the population odds, we compute stillbirth_people = 100 / 0.99, which equals approximately 1 in 101 pregnancies sharing this exact profile.

1. Consult healthcare professionals: Always review calculator estimates with your OB-GYN or midwife, as they can provide context that automated tools cannot capture.
2. Focus on controllable factors: While age and ethnicity cannot be altered, lifestyle variables like smoking cessation and alcohol avoidance significantly lower risk multipliers.
3. Monitor chronic conditions: Keep conditions like gestational diabetes or chronic hypertension strictly managed under medical supervision throughout all trimesters.