Poker EV Calculator

Expected value (EV) in poker represents the average amount of money you can expect to win or lose if a specific game situation is repeated an infinite number of times. The mathematical formula is derived by multiplying the probability of winning by the monetary gain, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the monetary loss: EV = (Win Probability * Win Amount) - (Loss Probability * Loss Amount). Because probabilities in poker always total 100% (or 1.0), your loss probability is simply 1 minus your win probability.

Imagine you are playing a Texas Hold'em cash game. The pot currently has $200 in it, and your opponent shoves for an additional $100. You estimate you have a 30% chance to hit your flush on the river, meaning a 70% chance to miss and lose your call. First, convert your percentages to decimals: Win Probability = 0.30, Loss Probability = 0.70. Your potential win amount is the final pot size including your call, which is $300 ($200 existing pot + $100 opponent bet + $100 your call). Your potential loss is the cost of your call, which is $100. Applying the formula: EV = (0.30 * $300) - (0.70 * $100). This calculates to $90 - $70, resulting in an EV of +$20. Because the expected value is positive, calling this bet is a profitable long-term decision.

Always base your win probabilities on realistic hand ranges rather than wishful thinking. A common pitfall is ignoring implied odds, which account for future money you might win on later streets if you hit your draw. Remember that even a positive EV play can result in a short-term loss due to variance, but consistency in making +EV decisions is the hallmark of a winning poker player.